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GC

GERON CORP (GERN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 net product revenue rose to $49.0M, up 24% QoQ on 17% demand growth, with ordering accounts now over 1,000; two‑thirds of prior accounts reordered and inventory stayed within the 2–4 week target range .
  • EPS and revenue beat S&P Global consensus: Revenue $49.0M vs $47.3M*, EPS $(0.02) vs $(0.0289)*; gross‑to‑net remained in the mid‑teens per CFO commentary, supporting the revenue outperformance .
  • FY25 OpEx guidance of $270–$285M was maintained; management reiterated confidence that existing liquidity plus U.S. RYTELO sales can fund operations and that profitability is achievable without additional financing if current sales/OpEx expectations are met .
  • Strategic catalysts: appointment of new CEO Harout Semerjian to accelerate commercial execution; EU launch preparations for 2026; IMpactMF enrollment >95% with interim OS readout expected 2H26 and final analysis 2H28, sustaining a medium‑term pipeline narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Commercial traction improved: RYTELO net product revenue grew 24% QoQ to $49.0M on 17% demand growth, aided by a broadened prescriber base (1,000+ ordering accounts) and expanded field/medical teams .
  • Access and adoption drivers strengthened: ~90% of U.S. covered lives now have favorable coverage; ~30% of new patient starts were in 1L/2L by May, indicating earlier‑line adoption momentum .
  • Leadership and pipeline: appointment of a seasoned hematology/oncology CEO; IMpactMF trial >95% enrolled, with interim OS readout expected 2H26 and final 2H28 .
  • Management quote (commercial execution): “We… increased our commercial sales team by 20% and doubled our medical science liaisons… [to] bolster awareness and adoption of RYTELO” — Interim CEO Dawn Bir .

What Went Wrong

  • Duration/late‑line mix: Majority of patients remain third‑line+, which tends to shorten duration versus the 7.8‑month duration seen in IMerge; management aims to shift usage earlier over time .
  • Safety‑related discontinuations: Cytopenias remain a noted cause of discontinuation, prompting further physician education and data‑generation efforts .
  • Operating cost trajectory: Total OpEx rose to $61.5M in Q2 (vs $56.3M in Q1) as the company invests in commercialization, though still below Q2 2024 levels .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Product Revenue ($M)$47.5 $39.4 $49.0
Total Net Revenue ($M)$47.5 $39.6 $49.0
Cost of Goods Sold ($M)$0.783 $1.206 $1.190
R&D Expense ($M)$23.4 $15.1 $21.7
SG&A Expense ($M)$43.4 $40.0 $38.6
Total Operating Expenses ($M)$67.6 $56.3 $61.5
Loss from Operations ($M)$(20.0) $(16.7) $(12.5)
Net Loss per Share$(0.04) $(0.03) $(0.02)

Q2 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($M)$47.30*$49.04
EPS (Primary)$(0.0289)*$(0.02)
  • Result: Revenue beat; EPS beat. CFO noted gross‑to‑net remained in the mid‑teens percent, consistent with prior commentary, supporting top‑line performance .
  • Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue Mix (Q2 2025)

ComponentQ2 2025
Product Revenue, net ($M)$49.007
Royalties ($M)$0.029
Total Net Revenue ($M)$49.036

Liquidity

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($M)~$502.9 ~$457.5 ~$432.6

KPIs and Commercial Indicators

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Notes
QoQ Demand Growth+1% (13‑wk period) +17% Driven by new patient starts
Ordering Accountsn/a>1,000 +~400 YTD
Reorder Raten/a~2/3 of prior accounts reordered Indicates repeat utilization
Coverage~85% reported on Q1 call baseline ~90% covered lives Favorable policies aligned to label/NCCN
Line of Therapy Mixn/a~30% 1L/2L (rolling 3‑mo claims as of May) Expect earlier use as confidence grows
Inventoryn/a2–4 weeks (target) Maintained within target range

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Operating ExpensesFY 2025$270–$285M (Feb/Q1 reaffirm) $270–$285M (maintained) Maintained
Profitability Expectation (no add’l financing)Multi‑yearStated Q4 2024 if sales/OpEx expectations are met Reiterated in forward‑looking statements Maintained
EU Commercialization2026Plan to commercialize in select EU countries in 2026 Continuing preparatory activities; measured approach with partner focus Maintained timeline/approach

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Commercial MomentumQ4: $47.5M net product revenue ; Q1: $39.4M, demand +1% in 13‑wk period $49.0M, demand +17%, >1,000 accounts, 2/3 reorder Improving
Payer AccessQ1 reference baseline ~85% covered lives ~90% covered lives; policies aligned to label/NCCN Improving
Earlier‑Line Adoptionn/a~30% of new starts in 1L/2L (May rolling claims) Improving
EU StrategyQ1: EC approval received; 2026 launch planning Preparations continue; measured EU4 approach; partner focus On Track
R&D Execution (IMpactMF)Q4: ~80% enrolled ; Q1: ~85% enrolled >95% enrolled; interim OS 2H26; final 2H28 Accelerating
Gross‑to‑NetGuidance in prior periods (mid‑teens implied)Mid‑teens percent maintained in Q2 Stable

Management Commentary

  • “We are pleased that our sharpened sales strategy is demonstrating signs of commercial success… we set out to increase our commercial sales team by 20% and double our medical science liaisons and… have accomplished both” — Dawn Bir, Interim CEO .
  • “Payer access continues to strengthen with approximately ninety percent of U.S. covered lives now under favorable RYTELO medical coverage policies… up from eighty five percent reported in the first quarter earnings call” — Jim Ziegler, CCO .
  • “Gross‑to‑net remained in the mid teens percent from Q1 to Q2 within the range of previous guidance… increase in RYTELO net revenues from Q1 to Q2 was driven by increased demand from new patient starts” — Michelle Robertson, CFO .
  • “The study is now over ninety five percent enrolled and we expect to complete enrollment before the end of the year… interim analysis in 2026 and final analysis in 2028” — Joseph Eid, EVP R&D, on IMpactMF .

Q&A Highlights

  • New patient dynamics and duration: Management reiterated third‑line+ utilization still predominates (shorter duration), with intention to move earlier‑line as confidence grows; no precise patient counts disclosed due to buy‑and‑bill data limits .
  • Earlier‑line adoption: ~30% of new starts are 1L/2L based on rolling claims; expectation is for continued shift earlier with education/KOL advocacy .
  • Sustainability of demand: Focus on business drivers (new starts, line of therapy, duration) and expanded field force/omnichannel expected to show impact by year‑end; near‑term trends viewed with “cautious optimism” .
  • EU commercialization: Pursuing strong reimbursement country‑by‑country; measured approach with potential partner support in EU4; financial discipline emphasized .
  • Discontinuations/cytopenias: Noted as a reason for some non‑retention; increased physician education and real‑world data generation planned .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 results vs consensus: Revenue $49.04M vs $47.30M* (beat); EPS $(0.02) vs $(0.0289)* (beat). 8 revenue and 9 EPS estimates underpinned the consensus* .
  • FY 2025 consensus (context): Revenue $186.76M*, EBITDA $(70.78)M*, EPS $(0.12), with target price consensus $3.33 (6 estimates), offering a baseline ahead of 2H execution. Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Potential estimate revisions: The combination of +17% demand growth, improving coverage (~90%), and rising 1L/2L use may support upward bias to revenue trajectories if sustained, while OpEx guidance remains unchanged; gross‑to‑net in the mid‑teens supports visibility into net sales .

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Commercial inflection: QoQ demand acceleration (+17%) and expanded prescriber base (>1,000 accounts; ~2/3 reorders) point to improving RYTELO momentum heading into 2H .
  • Access and mix: Coverage rose to ~90% and ~30% of new starts are in earlier lines, improving the path to longer duration and potentially higher net sales over time .
  • Cost discipline with growth: FY25 OpEx guidance maintained at $270–$285M while investment continues in field, medical affairs, EU preparations; company reiterates funding sufficiency and potential to reach profitability without additional financing if plan is met .
  • Leadership upgrade: New CEO with deep heme/onc commercialization experience is a potential catalyst for execution and external engagement .
  • Pipeline milestone track: IMpactMF enrollment >95% with OS readouts targeted 2H26 (interim) and 2H28 (final); a positive outcome would expand the commercial opportunity materially .
  • Trading lens (near‑term): Watch weekly demand trends, earlier‑line adoption, gross‑to‑net stability, and reorder rates; changes here will drive top‑line trajectory and sentiment .
  • Medium‑term thesis: Sustained U.S. execution plus EU launch in 2026 and potential MF readouts create a multi‑year growth arc if commercial and clinical milestones are met .
Note: All company-reported figures and quotes are sourced from primary documents and the earnings call. Consensus figures marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Citations

  • Q2 2025 8‑K/Press release and financial tables:
  • Earnings call transcript (Q2 2025):
  • CEO appointment press release:
  • Q1 2025 press release:
  • Q4 2024 press release: